Jakarta, suarabali.com – Meningkatnya angka kasus COVID-19 yang dilaporkan setiap harinya belum tentu menunjukkan keadaan semakin buruk dan perjuangan dalam melawan pandemi gagal. Sebab, kenaikan angka kasus COVID-19 juga dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor.
“Kita harus melihat penambahan jumlah itu karena apa,” kata Dewi Nur Aisyah, ahli Epidemiologi dan Informatika Penyakit Menular dari Tim Pakar Gugus Tugas Percepatan Penanganan COVID-19 (Gugus Tugas Nasional).
Menurut Dewi, meningkatnya penambahan kasus positif yang paling mudah dilihat adalah dari faktor adanya penambahan pemeriksaan.
“Yang paling mudah kita lihat sekarang adalah penambahan kasus positif bertambah tinggi, karena jumlah pemeriksaan juga bertambah tinggi,” jelas Dewi.
Dalam hal ini, hasil jumlah pemeriksaan terhadap orang yang diperiksa mempengaruhi angka kasus rata-rata penambahan positif setiap harinya. Dengan kata lain, apabila angka positivity rate menunjukkan hasil yang sama, berarti tidak ada perbedaan meski jumlahnya bertambah.
“Kalau dalam istilahnya adalah kita melihat positivity rate, berapa persen orang yang positif dari jumlah orang yang diperiksa. Kalau jumlahnya kurang lebih sama, berarti tidak ada perbedaan walaupun angkanya bertambah besar,” kata Dewi.
Sebagai contoh sederhana, ketika awalnya dilakukan pemeriksaan dengan target 10.000 lalu kemudian naik menjadi 20.000 per hari, maka hasilnya juga berpotensi akan mengalami peningkatan.
“Misal di awal kita punya target pemeriksaan 10.000 per hari, sekarang naik jadi 20.000 per hari, maka kita akan melihat lonjakan jumlah kasus positifnya,” jelas Dewi.
Oleh sebab itu, Dewi meminta masyarakat untuk tidak kemudian mengartikan bahwa penambahan angka kasus positif tersebut berarti kondisi semakin buruk dan perjuangan melawan COVID-19 selama ini menjadi sia-sia.
“Ketika kita melihat angka, maka jangan dilihat secara bulat,” ujar Dewi.
Angka Kasus COVID-19 Sangat Dinamis
Dalam kesempatan yang sama, Dewi juga menjelaskan bahwa COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang dinamis. Adapun keadaan dinamis tersebut juga mempengaruhi berubahnya angka kasus.
Menurut dia, seseorang berpotensi mengalami perubahan status dari Orang Dalam Pemantauan (ODP) menjadi Pasien Dalam Pengawasan (PDP), kemudian berubah lagi positif hingga negatif setelah melalui rangkaian isolasi mandiri dan dua kali melakukan tes swab.
Tentunya perubahan tersebut yang kemudian mempengaruhi data laporan kasus setiap harinya.
“Mungkin hari ini ada orang yang statusnya Orang Dalam Pemantauan (ODP) lalu kemudian setelah dites swab hasilnya positif, maka status berubah. Kemudian nanti selang dua minggu kemudian melakukan tes swab ulang sebanyak dua kali negatif, sembuh statusnya,” jelas Dewi.
“Jadi yang tadi statusnya ODP, berubah menjadi positif berubah menjadi sembuh,” imbuhnya.
Gambaran tersebut juga sekaligus dapat dipahami bahwa satu orang dapat berpindah status dan masuk dalam akumulasi data laporan, sehingga inilah yang kemudian disebut bahwa COVID-19 adalah penyakit yang dinamis.
Melihat beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi data perubahan angka kasus tersebut, Dewi juga mengatakan bahwa dalam hal ini infrastruktur dan kapasitas tenaga medis serta komponen terkait penanganan COVID-19 harus lebih ditingkatkan lagi. Terlebih ketika jumlah pemeriksaan sampel semakin meningkat, sebagai upaya tracing yang lebih agresif dalam menemukan kasus baru.
Selain itu, Dewi juga meminta agar masyarakat dapat lebih meningkatkan lagi upaya pencegahan dengan selalu menerapkan protokol kesehatan seperti memakai masker, menjaga jarak, mencuci tangan dengan sabun dan meningkatkan imunitas dengan menjaga gizi seimbang, tidur yang cukup dan berolahraga secara teratur. (*)
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